(Yicai) Aug. 10 -- The Yicai Chief Economist Confidence Index inched up 0.2 point to 49.9 this month, reflecting a modest improvement in sentiment around China’s economy while remaining below the boom-bust line of 50 for the third straight month.

The gauge stood at 49.7 in July, 49.9 in June, and 50.4 in May. August’s figure was released yesterday by the Yicai Research Institute.

The 13 chief economists surveyed expect the world’s second-largest economy to maintain a moderate recovery, supported by a more proactive fiscal policy, a moderately loose monetary policy, and other measures outlined by policymakers for the second half of the year.

The July meeting of the Politburo, the Communist Party’s top decision-making body, called for a faster transition from old to new growth drivers, better use of existing policy measures, and the effective implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately accommodative monetary policy.

The economists forecast China’s consumer price index and producer price index to have risen 0.7 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively, in July from a year earlier, higher than the 0.5 percent and 3.5 percent announced by the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday.

Their average forecast for fixed-asset investment was a 5.9 percent year-on-year decline in the first seven months of this year, widening from a 5.7 percent drop in the first half.

The economists forecast retail sales of consumer goods to have risen 1.6 percent in July from a year earlier, compared with a 1 percent increase in the prior month. They also predicted industrial added value to have climbed 4.8 percent year on year, slower than June’s 5.3 percent gain.

Financial data for July likely weakened from the previous month because of seasonal factors, according to the results of the survey. The economists’ average forecasts were CNY130 billion (USD19.3 billion) for new loans and CNY1.4 trillion (USD207.5 billion) for aggregate financing to the real economy, while they expected broad money supply (M2) to have expanded 7.9 percent from a year earlier.

The central parity rate of the Chinese yuan was set ay CNY6.7894 against the US dollar on July 31. The economists expect the rate to remain broadly stable in August, while their average year-end forecast of CNY6.72 to the dollar implies a modestly stronger redback than their previous forecast of CNY6.74.

Editor: Emmi Laine