(Yicai) Oct. 12 -- Relations between the United States and its allies are undergoing profound changes and are unlikely to return to the way they were, even if the Democratic Party regains power, a professor at Peking University’s School of International Studies told Yicai in a recent interview.

A series of policy measures rolled out during US President Donald Trump’s second term have fundamentally changed how US allies perceive their relationship with Washington and they no longer view the US as a reliable ally, Jia Qingguo said during the FutureChina Global Forum 2026 hosted by Business China in Singapore.

With less than a month to go before the US midterm elections, Jia said the prevailing view is that the Democrats are likely to take control of the House of Representatives, although they could also secure control of both chambers of Congress.

Two key factors will influence the outcome, said Jia, who is also former dean of the School of International Studies. The first is when the US-Israel-Iran conflict will end. The second is how the spillover effects from the conflict, such as rising prices and particularly oil prices, will affect voter sentiment. Domestic political maneuvering and media narratives are also likely to play a significant role.

From a historical perspective, US midterm elections have tended to work against the party in power. Whether the Republican Party can retain control over both the House and the Senate will be a key focus in the midterms, Jia said.

Jia said the perception of the US by its allies has fundamentally changed. During Trump's first term, although allies were shocked by his approach to foreign policy, many viewed his administration as an exceptional and temporary political development. They hoped the next administration would return to a more conventional course. When Joe Biden was elected president, US allies initially expected relations to return to normal. However, a series of policies implemented during Trump’s second term further undermined their confidence in Washington.

US allies no longer consider the US a reliable partner and are beginning to adjust their strategies, Jia said. On the one hand, they continue to seek to preserve and strengthen their alliances with the US, while on the other hand, they are exploring alternative ways to safeguard their security and mitigate risks.

On artificial intelligence safety, Jia said the US government had previously paid relatively limited attention to the risks associated with AI, considering these risks to be exaggerated. However, as AI technology continues to advance, he expects the Trump administration to devote greater attention to AI safety and ethical issues in the future.

Editor: Kim Taylor