(Yicai) May 11 -- Berkshire Hathaway has chosen to stay out of the artificial intelligence wave, Apple has adopted a follower strategy, while SoftBank Group has opted to take big risks by betting on OpenAI. The three companies have made distinctly different judgments at a crossroads for the future.

Currently, financial markets are experiencing four major decouplings: war from the stock market, US equities from US Treasuries, the US dollar from gold, and liquidity from risk appetite. Amid these divergences, global stock markets have entered a phase where AI is competing fiercely with oil prices. Over the past five weeks, AI has emerged as the clear winner, driving US stocks to fresh highs, while markets in South Korea and Taiwan, which are heavily weighted toward semiconductor companies, have surged even more sharply. Under the siphoning effect of global capital, a rare reshuffling of asset portfolios is unfolding.

This latest risk-on sentiment has been supported by strong earnings, with 85 percent of S&P 500 companies beating market expectations. The overwhelming demand and strong pricing for memory chips have been astonishing. However, whether the rally can continue remains open to debate. The anticipated June launch of SpaceX could potentially absorb significant liquidity, making it a key factor in determining whether the US stock market can hold steady.

Recently, two legendary companies saw leadership transitions. The first was Berkshire Hathaway, where investment icon Warren Buffett handed the company over to new Chief Executive Greg Abel. The second was Apple, where supply chain mastermind Tim Cook passed leadership to CEO John Ternus. Both successors have said they are in no rush to change their predecessors’ investment strategies and are willing to patiently wait for opportunities.

Different Strategies for the AI Era

Buffett led Berkshire Hathaway for 60 years, delivering investment returns of roughly 55,000-fold and earning near-mythical status in the stock market. His final masterstroke was the massive purchase of Apple shares. However, even as US stocks soared, Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio maintained a cash ratio as high as 40 percent. Buffett missed both the mobile internet revolution and the AI revolution, and his successor is continuing to “wait for opportunities.”

Cook led Apple for 15 years, during which the company’s stock price climbed nearly 2,000 percent. Under his leadership, Apple built a highly sticky ecosystem around premium mobile consumer devices, continuously generating high-quality cash flow. However, aside from maintaining and upgrading products pioneered by his predecessor Steve Jobs, innovation during Cook’s tenure was relatively limited. Cook also chose not to dive into the wave of major AI investments, instead hoping to profit by occupying key positions in the AI value chain. His successor has likewise said the company will “wait and see.”

Coincidentally, SoftBank has recently bundled its unprofitable AI assets for a planned initial public offering in the second half of the year to raise capital. SoftBank has nearly USD65 billion tied up in OpenAI-related investments, with its debt ratio reaching 140 percent and a large amount of short-term debt nearing maturity. To address those obligations, SoftBank has been selling stakes in publicly listed companies, pushing ahead with an IPO despite weak profitability conditions, and issuing massive long-term bonds. Even if it means liquidating assets, SoftBank is determined to go all-in on the AI wave.

The three companies, despite their different backgrounds, visions, and strategies, have all taken seats at the AI gambling table. Berkshire Hathaway chose to stay out of the AI wave, Apple opted for a follower strategy, while SoftBank decided to go all-in and bet everything on a single gamble. The author is not in a position to judge which company’s strategy is superior. All three companies achieved greatness in the past, yet they have made strikingly different decisions at a critical turning point for the future.

AI’s Impact Versus the Fate of AI Companies

The author believes breakthroughs in AI represent a revolution that will transform humanity and have far-reaching effects. However, the fate of AI companies themselves may be a different matter. Throughout history, many technological breakthroughs have left a profound mark, but large numbers of technology companies have failed along the way. The internet has become ubiquitous, yet few of the pioneers from the early-2000s internet revolution have survived to this day, and none ultimately emerged as a lasting dominant force.

[The author is the president and chief economist of Springs Capital Hong Kong. This article reflects personal opinions only and does not represent the official stance or forecasts of the organization, nor should it be considered investment advice or solicitation.]

Editor: Emmi Laine