China's Uninspiring Macroeconomic Gauges in July Show Push Is Needed(Yicai) Aug. 15 -- China's macroeconomic indicators for production, consumption, and investment revealed lower-than-expected performance last month as recovery remains feeble and domestic demand requires further support.
The total retail sales of consumer goods tallied CNY3.7 trillion (USD510.8 billion) last month, moving up by 2.5 percent from a year ago, slowing the pace of rising from June, according to data that the National Bureau of Statistics released today. Chief economists polled by Yicai had predicted the number would increase by nearly 4.4 percent.
Consumption grew slower because of a decrease in automobile sales, according to Fu Linghui, a stats bureau spokesperson. China sold 2.4 million vehicles last month, down by 9 percent from June and a 1.4 percent decline from a year earlier, according to the latest data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
The data show the external situation is complicated, and domestic demand still needs to be supported so the foundation for economic recovery must be consolidated, Pang Ming, chief economist of Jones Lang LaSalle Greater China, told Yicai.
Efforts should be made to hike domestic demand, boost confidence, and prevent risks, which are the priorities of macroeconomic policies, Pang said. However, in the second half, regulators will not resort to using excessive stimulus as they rely on a more powerful, moderate, and effective macroeconomic system, he added.
Other indicators were also lower than expected. From January to July, fixed-asset investment rose by 3.4 percent from a year earlier. However, in the first six months of this year, the growth rate had been higher at 3.8 percent, and chief economists had anticipated the latest month to eke out the same rate.
Investments in real estate development dropped by 8.5 percent in the seven-month period, accelerating the clip of sliding by 0.6 percentage points from June. Chief economists had predicted a milder 8.1 percent downturn.
Expectations in the real estate sector are improving, but it takes time for policies to take effect, per Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Golden Credit Rating International. Next, it is key to follow how regional property policies, especially those of first-tier and core second-tier cities, are adjusted as those cities are regarded as a weathervane for the whole market, Wang added.
The added value of big industrial enterprises climbed by 3.7 percent last month from a year ago, lower than the 4.5 percent estimate of chief economists. The year-over-year pace of growth was 4.4 percent in June.
China is faced with many unfavorable factors in its economic recovery but the market has great potential, a strong industrial foundation, and wide room for development, Fu said, adding that the fundamentals for long-term improvements have not changed. The economy is likely to continue to pick up with a stronger internal driving force and a greater effort in macroeconomic regulation, he added.
Editor: Emmi Laine
