China's 31 Provinces Set Development Targets for 2026
Chen Yikan | Zhang Yushuo
DATE:  15 hours ago
/ SOURCE:  Yicai
China's 31 Provinces Set Development Targets for 2026 China's 31 Provinces Set Development Targets for 2026

(Yicai) Feb. 25 -- All of China's 31 provincial-level regions have set their development goals for this year at their local Two Sessions, the annual meetings of their top legislative and political advisory bodies.

Their average gross domestic product growth rate for this year is 5.04 percent, down from an average of 5.24 percent predicted for last year, according to data compiled by Luo Zhiheng and Fang Kun, chief economists at Yuekai Securities.

Xizang Autonomous Region had the highest GDP growth target of above 7 percent, followed by Hainan province at around 6 percent and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region at 5.5 percent to 6 percent.

Economic powerhouses, including Guangdong, Henan, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces, set their economic growth goals at 4.5 percent to 5.5 percent, while the four provincial-level administrative regions with significant debt issues -- Liaoning, Yunnan, and Qinghai provinces and Tianjin -- have the lowest targets of around 4.5 percent.

The average local general public budget revenue growth target among the 31 provinces is 2.7 percent for this year, with 23 of them setting the goal between 2 percent and 4 percent, according to calculations from Luo and Fang.

Xinjiang has the highest target of 10 percent, while Jiangxi province has the lowest of 0.5 percent. Hubei leads the country's major provincial economies, with a target of 4.5 percent. Guangdong maintained a steady target of 3 percent for the third consecutive year, while Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, and Sichuan provinces all set their goals at 2 percent.

Most other provinces set their general public budget revenue growth targets 1 to 3 percentage points lower than their GDP growth targets, with Chongqing and Liaoning reporting the largest gap.

The growth of local general public budget revenues relies on a virtuous economic cycle and is closely related to price fluctuations, Wang Zhenyu, dean of Liaoning University's local government finance research institute, told Yicai. With stable economic growth and strong macroeconomic policies, this year's actual local fiscal revenue will likely beat expectations, he predicted.

In terms of investment, provincial-level regions that are undergoing debt restructuring generally reduced their fixed asset investment targets, according to Luo and Fang. Liaoning lowered its target to 3 percent from 8 percent, with Chongqing and Guizhou province also setting theirs at 3 percent. Tianjin did not release an exact forecast, while Guangdong reaffirmed its 5 percent growth goal, actively promoting investment stabilization and recovery.

Of the 19 provinces with available data, 15 have slashed their retail sales growth targets this year, with Hainan experiencing the largest decline to around 6 percent from over 10 percent. Regarding prices, the expectations for various provinces continue to be around 2 percent.

In terms of employment, 26 of the 31 provincial-level regions maintained their targets for new urban employment for this year, unchanged from last year.

Local governments generally expect increased pressure on balancing fiscal revenues and expenditures. To alleviate the financial imbalance at the local level, China should enhance the coordination of financial resources, increasing efforts to revitalize state-owned funds, assets, and resources to boost financial capabilities, said Wen Laicheng, professor at Central University of Finance and Economics.

Relevant measures to alleviate the long-standing difficulties faced by grassroots financial operations will likely be introduced during the national Two Sessions next month, according to Wang.

Editor: Futura Costaglione

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Keywords:   GDP,fiscal revenue,fixed investment,retail sales,debt relief,high-quality development,provincial targets,economic growth