On April 7, the global stock market was shaken, and the Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened sharply, and A-shares opened lower. Near the end of the session, a blockbuster news narrowed the decline of A-shares.

More than 2,900 stocks in the A-share market fell to the limit

On April 7, the three major A-share indexes collectively opened lower, and as of the close, the decline narrowed. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 7.34%, with the largest intraday decline of more than 11%.

The Shenzhen Component Index closed down 9.66%, with the biggest intraday decline of more than 11%.

The ChiNext index closed down 12.5%, the largest one-day decline in history, and the largest intraday decline of nearly 15%.

The BSE 50 closed down 17.95%. The turnover of the two cities was about 1.62 trillion yuan, an increase of about 459.7 billion yuan from the previous trading day. More than 5,200 stocks in the market fell, and more than 2,900 stocks fell to the limit.

From the perspective of sectors, agricultural stocks rose sharply against the trend, and Shennong Seed Industry rose by the limit. The concept of chicken stocks once soared, and Xiangjia shares rose to the limit. In terms of decline, Apple's concept stocks continued to fall heavily, and many stocks such as Goertek continued to fall to the limit; AI hardware stocks collectively weakened, and the new Yisheng 20CM fell to the limit. In terms of sectors, a few sectors such as agriculture rose, and sectors such as batteries, consumer electronics, computer equipment, and Zhipu AI were among the top decliners.

At the end of the session, the securities sector moved locally, and Xiangcai shares rose in a straight line.

Great wisdom intraday shock, which was once close to the fall limit.

On the news side, before the close of trading on the 7th, Central Huijin Company announced that Central Huijin Company is firmly optimistic about the development prospects of China's capital market, fully recognizes the value of the current A-share allocation, and has once again increased its holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and will continue to increase its holdings in the future to resolutely maintain the smooth operation of the capital market.

Interpretation of the brokerage firing line:

The A-share policy reserve is sufficient, and the focus is on the follow-up negotiation process

In the early morning of April 3, 2025, the United States announced the so-called "reciprocal tariff" policy, which attracted the attention of the global market.

In the medium to long term, the competitive advantage of China's export chain will continue. Song Xuetao, chief economist of Guojin Securities, pointed out that if the United States only imposes tariffs on China, China can disperse the unilateral tariff policy of the United States through entrepot trade and production capacity to go overseas; If the United States imposes tariffs on all countries, China will not lose its comparative advantage – China's export structure will be more optimized, the proportion of intermediate and capital goods will increase, the added value will be higher, the irreplaceability will be stronger, and the ability to pass on tariffs will be stronger.

In terms of policy response, in the view of Guo Lei, chief economist of GF Securities, the policy space in the four major aspects of monetary, fiscal, consumption and price is worth paying attention to:

(1) The monetary policy of "choosing the opportunity to cut interest rates and reserve requirements" ushered in a window period, and there is room for implementation of "guiding financial institutions to increase monetary and credit delivery". In 2024, the credit of social finance will increase by 5.17 trillion yuan year-on-year, and there will be more room for credit expansion in 2025.

(2) There is room for the release of local investment flexibility, and from the end of 2024, 10 provinces and municipalities will pilot special bonds "self-examination and spontaneous"; At the same time, the 2025 government work report pointed out that "optimize assessment and control measures, dynamically adjust the list of high-risk debt areas, and support the opening of new investment space", and the marginal inflection point of the policy since the centralization of debt is emerging.

(3) Policies such as "promoting the reasonable growth of wage income", "increasing the protection of childbirth and parenting", and "reducing the interest rate of housing provident fund loans in a timely manner" in the "Special Action Plan for Boosting Consumption" may be implemented.

(4) The "Opinions on Improving the Price Governance Mechanism" clearly points out that "strengthening the regulation and control of the overall price level" and "coordinating the expansion of domestic demand and deepening the supply-side structural reform" are the starting points for stabilizing the prices of industrial products and nominal growth.

"For the A-share market, core assets have shown strong operational resilience, and the opportunity for left-hand layout is ripe." Yang Fan's team said that from a macro point of view, it is expected that follow-up tariff negotiations and enterprise exemptions will continue to advance, and the actual impact may be reduced; From a micro point of view, Chinese enterprises have actively diversified their global layout in the past few years. Combined with the increase in policy hedging, investors are advised to remain patient and confident.

In the view of many brokerage chief economists, the Trump administration uses tariffs as a tool and weapon for negotiation, and the current high "reciprocal tariff" rate is more because Trump gives a tariff ceiling, and then moderately lowers it according to the bargaining chips offered by various countries, and the focus of tariffs is negotiation and game.

Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, predicts that Trump may adopt a "two-step" strategy, the first step is to invoke the International Emergency Economic Powers Act or Article 338 of the 1930 Tariff Act to quickly implement some tariffs; The second step is to initiate a Section 301 investigation, etc., and adjust the intensity and scope of tariffs according to the results.

As for the possible response measures of various economies, Xiong Yuan's team believes that countries are likely to try to negotiate and reduce tariff rates, but the means may be different. It can be roughly divided into two categories: one is "to promote negotiations", such as Israel announced that it will cancel all tariffs on US imports, and India also plans to reduce some tariffs on the United States, while promising to increase the purchase of US oil and gas; For example, in response to the 10% tariff imposed twice in February and March, China has carried out two rounds of tariff countermeasures against the United States, involving energy, agricultural products, etc.; The European Union has also taken a hard line and has now threatened to impose tariffs on American products.

A-share listed companies have intensively responded to the impact of "reciprocal tariffs".

As of press release on April 7, more than 30 A-share listed companies have publicly responded to the impact of the U.S. tariff policy adjustment on the company.

Yunnan Germanium Industry Co., Ltd. (002428. SZ) said on the interactive platform that the company has exported less to American customers in recent years. The company will pay close attention to relevant policy changes, and maintain active communication with customers to respond flexibly.

Quectel (603236. SH) said that in 2024, the company's revenue from direct exports of products sold to the United States accounted for a small proportion of the company's total revenue, and the current tariff policy has not had a significant impact on the company's operations. The company will continue to pay attention to relevant policy changes, study the possible impact of external uncertainties on the company, and actively respond to various measures such as business negotiations and overseas production to ensure the soundness of its operations.

Demingli(001309. SZ) also recently said that the company's export to the United States business accounted for a very low proportion of overall revenue, and the "reciprocal tariff" will not have a significant adverse impact on the company's operations, and the company also emphasized that it will reduce potential risks through diversified layout and supply chain optimization, and will continue to pay close attention to policy trends in the future.

Xingsen Technology(002436. SZ) responded to the impact of the U.S. tariff policy on the interactive platform, saying that the company's U.S. business revenue accounted for a relatively low proportion and was less affected, and the company's current operating conditions are normal. The company will pay close attention to the changes and developments of international trade policies, and continue to communicate with customers to steadily promote various business development.

Juchen Co., Ltd. (688123. SH) said that the company's exports to the United States accounted for less than 1% of the overall revenue, and the direct impact of this tariff adjustment on the company is small, and the impact on the downstream industry and supply chain remains to be seen.

At the same time, many companies said that they have strengthened communication with customers and made positive responses, and their production and operation are normal and within a controllable range.

On April 7, Chaoda Equipment (301186. SZ) said on the interactive platform that the company continues to pay attention to the changes in the business environment in overseas markets, and is currently carrying out various businesses in an orderly manner, maintaining close communication with customers, and actively responding to the risks of policy changes. At present, the company's production and operation are normal.

On April 3, an investor asked Gongda Electroacoustic (002655. SZ) asked whether the company's business and profitability would be affected by the increase in tariffs. In this regard, Gongda Electroacoustics replied that the matter is still under control.

It is worth noting that in recent years, the development of the "Belt and Road" business has made the export business of some enterprises more diversified and enhanced the ability to resist risks.

For example, Lehui International (603076. SH) responded that the company's equipment export share accounted for about 50%, of which more than 90% was exported to the "Belt and Road" countries, so the U.S. tariff policy had little impact on the company.

Take multiple measures to respond positively

Other responses from a number of companies show that the company has already deployed in the supply chain to cope with international market fluctuations.

As a leading domestic energy drink company, Dongpeng Beverage (605499. SH) relies on the localization advantages of the whole industry chain to continue to deepen the localization process. It is reported that the company's main raw material procurement and production base have achieved 100% domestic layout, and the localization rate of packaging material suppliers such as PET bottles and cartons is 100%. Through the self-built intelligent production base and digital supply chain system, the localization rate of key production equipment is nearly 100%, effectively resisting the risk of external supply chain fluctuations.

Halide (002206. SZ) also recently said in an institutional survey that the export to the U.S. market in 2024 accounts for about 10% of the company's overall revenue, and the U.S. tariffs will not have a significant impact on the company's business. On the other hand, the company will continue to pay close attention to the follow-up developments of relevant policies by strengthening the customer price negotiation mechanism.

Satellite Chemistry (002648. SZ) responded to investors' questions on the issue of tariffs, saying that the company has formulated several sets of response plans, even if the tariffs will not affect the company's short-term performance. In the long run, it will not have a fundamental impact on the company's performance.

Funeng Technology(688567. SH) said that at present, the company's product exports are mainly in Europe, and the United States exports account for a relatively small proportion. At the same time, in terms of overseas production capacity construction, the company is one of the earliest enterprises in the lithium battery industry to deploy overseas production capacity. The company has established a joint venture subsidiary, Siro, with TOGG, a Turkish electric vehicle brand customer, of which the first phase of the Siro project has been put into operation with a 6GWh production capacity and completed the capacity ramp-up. The increase in U.S. tariffs will have a small impact on the company's operations.

A number of companies are actively communicating the exemption policy.

Zhongji InnoLight (300308. SZ) said that the company is currently conducting research on relevant tariff policies, including the policy of tariff exemption, assessing the proportion of the value of the company's products that can be exempted, and if the requirements are met, it will submit an application for tariff exemption; Since the imposition of tariffs, overseas customers have not adjusted any demand and orders, nor have they asked to change the existing trade terms agreed with the company in the past; At present, the company has the ability to fully produce optical modules and ship and deliver optical modules in the Thai factory.

"The company's export business accounts for 90%, and it is currently communicating with customers to apply for exemption as much as possible. This is because it was exempted from the previous round of tariffs. A person related to a leading fruit chain company said.

Key sectors will be limited in impact

After the release of the "reciprocal tariff", some key industries have attracted market attention.

For example, in the field of semiconductors, some companies in the design process said that from the sales side, because the proportion of exports to the United States is not high, the direct impact of tariffs on them is small.

From the perspective of procurement, EDA and other design software still need to be purchased from the United States, but this part of the cost accounts for a relatively small proportion of the total cost, considering the degree of localization of wafer manufacturing and other links, the overall impact is small.

From the perspective of the packaging and testing link, the value of the packaging and testing link in the value of the chip is low, and the general basis for determining the origin is not in the packaging and testing link, and the direct impact of Article 301 on the packaging and testing enterprises is very small. At the same time, some packaging and testing companies continue to promote the localization process of equipment and material supply chains, and the direct impact of China's tariff countermeasures on the procurement side is also relatively limited.

On the afternoon of April 6, Telink Micro (688591. SH) issued a document on the official public account that the company's customer sales outside Chinese mainland account for about 1/3, of which non-US customers account for a large proportion, and at the same time, the company's chip products are directly sold and exported to the United States accounted for less than 1%, which has little direct impact on the company's performance. In terms of delivery mode, U.S. customers usually place orders to purchase the company's chips through their designated ODM manufacturers or processing plants, and the company completes the delivery according to the order demand. At present, the ODM manufacturers and processing plants used by the company's American customers are basically in Asia (including China, South Korea, Southeast Asia, etc.) and Mexico, so the company's chips are almost not directly exported to the United States, but are integrated into end products (such as smart home devices, remote controls, etc.) by ODM manufacturers, and then sold to the United States and other markets.

According to brokerage research data, China will export 116,000 cars to the United States in 2024, including Tesla's resale of American cars, accounting for only 1.8% of China's automobile exports.

A car company said that since the end of last year, it was reported that the Trump administration would impose a high proportion of tariffs on Chinese-made cars, the company and its related vehicle companies have made positive adjustments and gradually reduced exports to the United States. On the whole, Trump's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" has little impact on the company's vehicle export business. However, the company will continue to pay attention to the changes in the international trade situation, especially the changes in the tariff policies of various countries, dynamically optimize the export strategy, and effectively prevent overseas business risks.

A leading company in the home appliance industry told reporters that the products currently sold by the company in the United States are basically produced and supplied in Mexico, and fully comply with the requirements of the USMCA Trade Agreement. "Therefore, the tariff policy has almost no impact on the company's costs, and it was zero tariff before, and it will be zero tariff in the future. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the changes in market demand. ”

Asia-Pacific stock markets tumbled

The stock markets of Japan and South Korea have triggered circuit breakers

Major Asia-Pacific stock indexes closed down across the board, with the Nikkei 225 down 7.83%, South Korea's Kospi down 5.58%, Australia's S&P 200 down 3.89%, and New Zealand's S&P 50 down 3.68%.

The plunge in the stock markets of Japan and South Korea triggered the "circuit breaker mechanism". Due to the large number of sell orders for Nikkei 225 Index and Topix Index futures, the Osaka Exchange activated the "circuit breaker mechanism" from 8:45 local time, temporarily suspending Nikkei 225 Index futures trading for 10 minutes, which is the first time since August 2012 that the exchange has launched this measure. South Korean stocks also urgently suspended programmatic sell orders in the KOSPI market after a sharp decline.

Why did the Japanese and South Korean stock markets suffer a major crash? Li Huihui, a professor of management practice at emlyon business school in France, told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that reciprocal tariffs are the "fuse" that led to the sharp fall in the stock markets of Japan and South Korea, and the Trump administration imposed high tariffs on exports from Japan and South Korea, which directly impacted the export-driven industrial structure of the two countries, especially the core industrial sectors such as automobiles and semiconductors, and investors lowered their earnings expectations, triggering a concentrated sell-off.

On the other hand, the deeper trigger for the sharp decline in Japanese and South Korean stock markets was the sharp rise in recession expectations in the United States. Recently, Goldman Sachs Group released a report raising the probability of a recession in the United States from 20% to 35% in the next 12 months. In addition, the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI data, new jobs and other data are weaker than expected, the current policy mix in the United States may lead to a "stagflationary recession", so the rapid withdrawal of funds from high-risk markets, the Japanese and South Korean stock markets bear the brunt. In addition, Lee believes that the "background noise" of geopolitical disturbances, such as political instability in South Korea, has made its market sentiment more fragile.

However, some analysts believe that the stock markets of Japan and South Korea may still have room to continue to fall. Tomochika Kitaoka, an analyst at Nomura Securities, believes that the tariff risk has not yet been fully reflected in the valuation of the Japanese market, and there is still room for Japanese stocks to fall after the "reciprocal tariff" policy is implemented, and the profitability of the Topix index will be lowered.