(Yicai) Sept. 30 -- Artificial intelligence is reshaping skilled trade, technical and service jobs faster than education and training systems can adapt, opening up a "triple capability gap" that puts a new generation of workers at risk of becoming "AI-rich but experience-poor," according to a study recently released by UK education group Pearson, whose business spans digital and traditional contents assessment and certification.

The three capabilities, are "role-specific AI literacy and critical judgement, in other words being able to understand when to use AI, when to question it and how to apply it safely and responsibly, the human capabilities of communication, collaboration, adaptability, emotional intelligence and learning agility, and the institutional knowledge that retiring experts are taking with them," according to Pearson’s research, which was released on Sept. 24 during the 48th WorldSkills Competition in Shanghai that ended yesterday.

If left unaddressed, the gap "could make it harder for employers to maintain safety standards, sustain essential services and support economic growth," London-based Pearson said in two reports, namely the global report "For Every Future: Preparing Early-Career Skilled Trade, Technical and Service Talent for an AI-Infused World" and the "China Spotlight Report." 

A survey of trainee industrial machinery mechanics and other early-career workers found that most expect to use AI on the job, but “fewer than half indicated that they were even moderately confident that their training will prepare them to do so.”

Pearson, whose business spans assessment and certification, including BTEC vocational qualifications and Certiport technology certifications, was a platinum partner at this year’s WorldSkills Competition. Held for the first time in China, the event brought together 1,385 competitors from 68 countries and regions to compete in 64 events.

Skills Shortage

"Demand is rising as expertise walks out the door," Pearson said on a webpage dedicated to the global report, which compares labor markets in the US, UK and China. 

In the US, "these roles generate around 14.3 million job openings every year, and about 14.1 million of them, or 98.5 percent, come from replacing workers who retire, change occupation or leave the labor force altogether. In the UK, replacement demand is expected to total just over 4 million over the decade, equivalent to 99 percent of all openings," the global report said.

For China, our projections for skilled trade, technical and service workers indicate that demand will rise from around 347 million workers in 2023 to about 477 million by 2035, while the working-age population peaks and thus the supply of such workers falls to around 328 million. The result is a structural shortfall of roughly 149 million, it added.

"Even with the most optimistic combination of workforce measures, ranging from higher participation rates in the labor market to a greater number of graduates taking up skilled trades, technical and service jobs, the gap cannot be closed completely. The remainder must come from making each worker more productive, and AI has a significant role to play toward boosting worker productivity," the global report said. The China Spotlight Report specifically noted that the shortfall does not equal the number of job vacancies, but rather shows that supply-side measures alone cannot meet demand.

By sector, the occupations most driving this upward trend are within wholesale and retail, which is projected to increase by 92 percent, and culture, sports and entertainment, where hiring requirements are expected to double, the global report said.

Workforce Shift

The China Spotlight Report's industry analysis also showed that manufacturing, transportation, hotels and catering, and construction are more oriented toward automation, while wholesale and retail, health and social services, household services as well as culture, sports and entertainment show greater potential for AI augmentation.

"We are entering a period where workers across hospitals, factories and critical infrastructure will need to combine the judgement needed to work effectively with AI, the human skills that technology cannot replace, and the hands-on expertise gained through experience," Elaine Cao, chief executive officer of Pearson China.

"China has made a strong start, with industry-education integration, experience-first learning and purpose-built AI systems providing a strong foundation for an AI-enabled skilled workforce. Closing China's workforce readiness gap will require employers, educators and policymakers to move in step to help early-career workers grow alongside AI," she said.

"It was very, very common sentiment that the white collar jobs were the first place to look for where AI was going to have an impact," Art Valentine, president of Pearson’s Assessment and Qualifications business, told media outlets including Yicai. “But AI is already being used in frontline settings in manufacturing, healthcare and pharmacies for quality checks, process guidance and prescription verification. It is everywhere and it is not going to stop," he said.

Training Gap

On why vocational colleges are struggling to keep pace with market demand, Valentine said this is a common issue globally because "employers often have the ability to invest faster in what's happening in their market than the education system can." Schools should make sure that the students are getting their hands on those tools in the classroom in a way that is not theoretical but is specific to their field, and maintain ongoing dialogue with local employers, he added.

The same day, Valentine held a discussion with David Hoey, CEO of WorldSkills International, at a forum hosted by Pearson. Valentine outlined two approaches to assessment in the AI era, which are having candidates interact with AI tools in simulated or real-world work scenarios to gauge their judgment, or isolating candidates from AI and using written exams or oral questioning.

Hoey said the assessment of skills competitions has evolved from being almost entirely focused on technical abilities to increasingly incorporating soft skills such as decision-making and communication. Speaking about AI, he said: “It's not gonna go away. We gotta learn how to harness it. We've got to learn how to use it.”

Editor: Kim Taylor